What is Disease Modeling?
Disease models make forecasts about what could happen. They show us how a disease might spread in a community. These forecasts help us to plan for different situations.
Just like weather forecasts, disease models are not perfect. And like weather forecasts, disease models are most accurate for forecasting the near future.
Because COVID-19 is a new disease, we learn more about it all the time. We adjust our forecast models as we learn.
You can see Santa Cruz County’s modeling code for yourself here.